<HTML> <TITLE>RecallPlus Study Simulation Report 03/05/2005 00:01</TITLE> <BODY> <center><h2>RecallPlus Study Simulation Report 03/05/2005 00:01</h2></center> <h3><u>Content Index</u></h3> <table><tr><td> <a href="#Conditions">Simulation Conditions</a><br> <a href="#ColoredTimeUnits">Activity by Time Unit</a><br> <a href="#PercentageTimePerDay">Time use by Day</a><br> <a href="#AbsoluteKnownPerDay">Testing Outcomes by Day</a><br> <a href="#AbsoluteTimeSegmentsTestedByDay">Testing Time Segments by Day</a><br> <a href="#ExamResultSimByDay">Projected Total Knowledge over time.</a><br> <a href="#ForgettingCurves">Forgetting Curves</a><br> <a href="#Limitations">Limitations to Simulation.</a><br> Online Link :- <a href="http://www.RecallPlus.com/ExpertEditionAndTheSimulation.asp">Extensive Explanation and updates of Functionality</a><br> </td></tr> </table> <br><br><h3><u>Simulation Conditions</u></h3> <center><h4>Date Start 03/05/2005 -- Date of Completion 03/18/2005 </h4></center><center><table border='1' width='500'><tr><td align='center' width='150'>Sun 2 Hours<br>Mon 2 Hours<br>Tue 2 Hours<br>Wed 2 Hours<br>Thu 2 Hours<br>Fri 2 Hours<br>Sat 2 Hours<br></td><td><td>Percent of remaining time to spread new learning over<br>80%<br><br>Percent Notes Complete - Percent Yet to come<br>50%&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;+&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;50%&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;=&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;100%<br>No Cards/Items Testable at Start=29/157<br>No Cards/Items Testable by End=43/327<br><br>Time to Test 1 Item = 10 Seconds<br>Time to Create 1 testable item = 60 Seconds.</td></tr></table></center> <br><br> <h3><u>Simulation Results</u></h3> <br><br> <br> <a name='ColoredTimeUnits'></a><img src='RecallPlus_Study_Simulation_Report\ColoredTimeUnits.bmp' alt='ColoredTimeUnits'><br> <br> Each column is 1 'Sim Day'. Each rectangle is a time unit of >=10 minutes.<br> The color green represents time spent adding new items. Red= time spent revising. Black=idle time.<br> Hues of color between indicate time spent in mixed activities... e.g. the more pure the green, the more time spent adding new information.<br> <br> <br> <br> <a name='PercentageTimePerDay'></a><img src='RecallPlus_Study_Simulation_Report\PercentageTimePerDay.bmp' alt='PercentageTimePerDay'><br> <br> 3 Points are plotted for each 'Sim Day'.<br> The user may be doing 1 of 3 activities... Green = adding new notes, red = revising old, black = doing nothing.<br> <br> The percentages on any particular day must add to 100%<br> <br> <br> <br> <a name='AbsoluteKnownPerDay'></a><img src='RecallPlus_Study_Simulation_Report\AbsoluteKnownPerDay.bmp' alt='AbsoluteKnownPerDay'><br> <br> Each 'Sim Day' has 3 points plotted.<br> The space from the baseline up to the red point, is the number of items the user forgot.<br> Up to the orange point, from the red point is the number partially recalled.<br> The space then from orange point up to green is the number recalled perfectly.<br> <br> Note that the result of testing on any particular day is closely correlated with the time segments, the items being tested have reached. <br> See next graph for time segments data.<br> <br> Since the user is only tested on things they are likely to be forgetting... these results do NOT reflect the user's overall knowledge.<br> To get an idea of the user's progressive overall knowledge see graph titled 'Expected Exam Result...'<br> <br> <br> <a name='AbsoluteTimeSegmentsTestedByDay'></a><img src='RecallPlus_Study_Simulation_Report\AbsoluteTimeSegmentsTestedByDay.bmp' alt='AbsoluteTimeSegmentsTestedByDay'><br> <br> Each 'Sim Day', as items are tested, they will be 'overdue' for testing by a certain amount.<br> Specifically, if an item ideally is to be tested at 10 mins, then 80 mins after first being learnt, the possibility exists that the item will in fact not be revised until 24 hours down the track.<br> Recollection of that item depends on how long 'overdue for testing' it is.<br> Arbitrarily RecallPlus tracks time 7 time segments. <br> <10% overdue, <30% overdue, <90% overdue ... all the way up to >200% overdue etc.<br> <br> These are recorded in the forgetting curves.<br> The more items that are more overdue for testing, the worse the outcome of testing will be for that day.<br> <br> Plotted by day on this graph are the number tested in each 'time segment', time segment '0' being the '<10%' overdue segment.<br> <br> <br> <br> <a name='ExamResultSimByDay'></a><img src='RecallPlus_Study_Simulation_Report\ExamResultSimByDay.bmp' alt='ExamResultSimByDay'><br> <br> <u>The method for calculating the 'Expected Exam result'</u><br> This is done during the simulation's running.<br> The exam result is found by looking at each and every testable item in the notes, and, using the forgetting curves, calculate the likelyhood, if that item was tested, of the user recalling the information.<br> <br> If the user has not yet added all the notes at the time this calculation is performed, it is assumed that the ideas not yet entered, would result in a 'zero' mark for that item.<br> <br> Basically a 'green' result is 1 mark, orange = .5 of a mark and Red OR not in notes yet is zero.<br> <br> The final result is the average percent of all of the notes entered and yet to be entered.<br> <br> <br> <br> <a name='ForgettingCurves'></a><img src='RecallPlus_Study_Simulation_Report\ForgettingCurves.bmp' alt='ForgettingCurves'><br> <br><h4>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&lt10%&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&lt30%&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&lt90%&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&lt300%&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&lt900%&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&lt3000%&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&gt3000%<br>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<font size='4'><b>Time Segments percentage overdue for testing by...</b></font></h4> <a name="Limitations"></a> <h3><u>Limitations to the Simulation</u></h3> There are a number of limitations to this simulation.. <br>Below are described the major ones.<br>This product is designed to improve student ability to predict their study time needs, however we cannot guarantee precision.<Br>Generally the longer you use RecallPlus, the more accurate it will become at predicting as more data is available to extrapolate forwards in time.<br><h4>Limitations and how to allow for them.</h4> <ul> <li>Forgetting curves are at the heart of the simulation. They are only as accurate as the data they collect from the user studying with RecallPlus. We suggest you check them to make sure that they reflect your study habit, and are not filled with data from your use of RecallPlus prior to study proper.</li> <li>Note that forgetting curves may change in a number of circumstances including change in user interest in study, change in user study efficiency, change in subject and a host of other possibilities. We expect the major change should be that continued use of RecallPlus should improve student study technique, leading to more impressive forgetting curves.</li> <li>Other figures including - hours/day, Percentage of Notes yet to be entered must be entered accurately.</li> <li>Please make sure the time per new testable item/idea added does in fact reflect how long it normally takes you otherwise this can be a source of simulation error.</li> <li>Please make sure the time per tested item/idea added does in fact reflect how long it normally takes you otherwise this can be a source of simulation error.</li> <li>It is possible to learn things with RecallPlus, and in exam conditions, be unable to use that information. This is best avoided by making sure your RecallPlus notes accurately reflect the 'triggers' that you are presented with in the exam proper. Duplicate exam conditions whereever possible.</li> <li></li> </ul> Online Link :- <a href="http://www.RecallPlus.com/ExpertEditionAndTheSimulation.asp">For latest updates on simulation accuracy - see limitations online</a><br>